Bankroll & Variance
The skill that keeps you in the game long enough for skill to matter.
Poker is a positive-EV bet wrapped in brutal short-term variance. You can play perfectly and lose for weeks. Bankroll management is the discipline that lets the long run arrive before you go broke.
The rule is boring and it works: keep enough buy-ins that a normal downswing can't bust you (20–40+ for cash, more for tournaments), and move down when the roll shrinks. Detach the money you play with from the money you live on.
This is the exact structure of every serious bet Dragonfly makes — a domain portfolio, a product launch, a design gamble. Size the position so no single bad beat ends the game.
Words that carry weight.
Variance
The natural swing of results around your true winrate. High even for winning players.
Bankroll
The dedicated pool of money for playing — walled off from living expenses.
Downswing
An extended stretch below expectation. Survivable only if properly rolled.
Risk of ruin
The probability of losing your whole bankroll given your edge, variance, and buy-in count.
You have €600 and want to play. Which stake — €1/€2 (€200 buy-in) or €0.25/€0.50 (€50 buy-in)?
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€0.25/€0.50. Three buy-ins at €1/€2 is a bust waiting for a downswing. Twelve buy-ins at €0.25/€0.50 lets your edge outrun variance. Move up only when the roll — not the ego — says so.
Manage risk of ruin like a portfolio: size every bet so no single swing can knock you out of the long run.